ETH May Be Approaching Another Bottom: Here is Why

TLDR:

• Ethereum’s Binance NUPL has dropped near -0.35, a level historically tied to major bottoms.
• The metric shows exchange-held ETH supply carrying unrealized losses near 35% of its value.
• Past -0.35 readings coincided with the 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2025 ETH bottoming phases too.
• Ethereum traded near $1,866.93, down 3.01% daily despite a 0.38% weekly price gain overall.

Ethereum’s exchange-level Net Unrealized Profit and Loss reading on Binance has slipped into a historic bottoming zone.

The metric, known as NUPL, now sits near negative 0.35. That level appeared during the 2019 lows, the March 2020 crash, and both 2022 bottoming phases. It also showed up in the 2025 correction.

Ethereum traded at $1,866.93 at the time of writing. The asset fell 3.01% over the past 24 hours despite a 0.38% gain across the week.

Reading the Binance NUPL Level

NUPL measures the gap between unrealized profits and unrealized losses held by a given supply cohort. A positive reading means that the cohort holds an aggregate paper profit. A negative reading means the same supply sits underwater against its estimated cost basis.

This particular calculation covers only ETH held on Binance rather than the full Ethereum holder base. That distinction matters because exchange-based supply tends to be more available for immediate trading. It offers a narrower but more reactive view of market stress.

A reading near negative 0.35 signals considerable financial stress among that group. The tracked supply is carrying unrealized losses equal to roughly 35% of its current market value. This level has not appeared often across Ethereum’s trading history.

Cryptoquant Analyst @MorenoDV_ noted that “Ethereum’s exchange-level NUPL on Binance has returned to a region that has historically appeared near important price floors.”

Past occurrences of this threshold coincided with several of Ethereum’s most notable market bottoms. Those episodes span both the 2019 and 2020 lows.

What The Pattern Suggests About ETH

As weaker holders capitulate near this threshold, the remaining exchange supply grows less willing to sell at depressed prices. Once the most loss-sensitive sellers have exited, further declines may generate less additional supply pressure.

That dynamic can allow even modest buying demand to stabilize price levels over time. Traders often watch for this shift as an early signal of a possible trend reversal.

Previous cycles show mixed outcomes after the first breach of this zone. In some cases, price found support quickly. In others, a retest or a final lower low preceded the eventual recovery.

A move back above the negative 0.35 threshold while ETH holds its recent low would strengthen the bottoming case. Continued NUPL deterioration alongside fresh price lows would instead suggest that capitulation remains incomplete.

Ethereum’s price action over the coming weeks will likely determine which outcome plays out this cycle. Traders watching on-chain metrics will look for confirmation through price stabilization and a corresponding recovery in the NUPL reading.

Until that confirmation arrives, the current reading remains a signal worth monitoring rather than a guaranteed floor for Ethereum’s price.

On-chain observers typically treat the metric as one input among several. Spot volume, funding rates, and broader macro conditions also shape the outlook.